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Alan Greenspan
by Tam

The question remains: We will have the depression waited for diverse economic analysts or a serious contraction, eufemismo of others? I reaffirm my thesis that the passed experiences, the emergent technology, interatividade and countries had changed the conception of the depression in a economic cycle. Peter Drucker and Alan Greenspan had more recently praised that the world would not be the same with the age of the knowledge and the society of the information. The loss of the importance of the United States in the global economy is another factor that will help to cool a possible depression. China walks the wide steps to assume the tip in the world-wide economy, billions of people still needs the virtuous movement of the consumption for there, in a similar way in India and proper Brazil. It has much fat to be burnt in the expansion of the production and the consumption. A contraction in the Europe and U.S.A. goes to affect of certain forms the global economy, but we cannot affirm that we will arrive at the depression. If for the theory of the economic cycles the only obvious and certain thing is the contraction after the expansion, for determination of the period of training and of the chronology many studies are necessary more, also now with new premises as the speed, intangibilidade and conectividade that as much I have boasted.

The empirismo of the cycle cannot be confirmed, but of the forecasts and the economic futurologia yes. The errors of the economic forecasts for the technician and the specialized press are very common. The miditica wave functions as positive or negative factor inside of the context of the society of the information. The expectations always can be confirmed depending on the performance of the press and an eventual effect herd that this behavior can provoke. joint of the G-20, the experience with passed crises, president-elect Obama, the resilience of the American economy, the pujana of China with its positive growth of 9% to the year and other factors go saving in them of the terrible one and feared depression. A thing must be clear, cannot compare the crises of the past with the current ones. Analogous yes, but a repetition is impossible. The world is another one, the people had evolved very, the management mechanisms and the technology is there, with a detail, the faster changes is each time. We live an inflection of a economic cycle without a doubt, we cannot affirm is that period of training would be this, nor how much time goes to last, independent of the theory that we go to adopt. The economic logic functions some times, the forecasts also, but it exists until a trick between the economists: To the times we obtain to even make a mistake with the past!



October 30th


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